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NNadir

(36,183 posts)
6. An estimate...
Mon Mar 24, 2025, 09:32 AM
Mar 2025

In previous posts in this series, I have used a quadratic model derived by treating the rate of change in the 52 week running average as a second derivative, integrating twice, and using the data for the current rate of change and the current reading as boundary conditions. It's somewhat crude, but an estimate is 500 ppm around 2046, and somewhere around 520 ppm by 2050 if I recall. I'm not at my computer so I can't call up the spreadsheet. There seems to be some indication of a slightly positive third derivative as well, but it's probably trivial at this point.

I'm likely to be dead then which certainly doesn't excuse me from participating in my generation. I often state that history will not forgive us, nor should it.

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