Guess Why Saudi Arabia is Hosting the Ukraine Truce Talks? [View all]
Oil. (You don't seem surprised...)
Oil is why the KSA is hosting. Leaks from back channel sources say that the US has asked Russia to pay back all of our costs for the Ukraine war -- $350 billion -- as a condition of the truce. They say that asking Ukraine for $500 billion in rare earth minerals last week was just posturing but publicly establishes an asking price for ending the conflict. One scenario is that Ukraine and Russia jointly pay back the $350 bil with Russia taking the more public position.
Briefly reviewing: the sanctions which were put on Russia in 2022 did not have the desired impact. Russian oil traded to third countries who in turn sold it to countries with no sanctions. The USA wants to drop the price of oil while getting as much energy trading back on the USD as possible. The KSA has conflicting interests -- loves high oil prices but is the central player in the longstanding petro-dollar. Thus KSA will be at the table for the negotiation to end the Ukraine war.
Meanwhile Germany is looking to rebound as energy costs drop and EU defense contractors have already risen in trading over the weekend as the US backs off of both NATO and the Ukraine conflict. SAAB (who I only knew as the maker of goofy looking cars) is up 28% in 3 days.
Curiouser and curiouser.