Let's talk about Trump's move on the Fed, Tillis, Bessent, and public statements.... - Belle of the Ranch

[TexasTowelie]

Well, howdy there internet people. It's Belle again. So today we're going to talk about Trump's move on the Fed, Tillis, Bessent, and public statements.

There's a lot going on over at the Federal Reserve and there's a lot of public statements going on and it does matter to you. I'll have an explainer on the Fed down below along with some more background information that gets into the dirty details. But to drastically abbreviate the situation, Trump wants current Fed Chair Jerome Powell out. He wants to replace him with a guy named Kevin Warsh, but Trump's administration launched a probe into Powell.

The independence of the Federal Reserve is very important and this was seen by many as an attempt to undercut that. So much so that Republicans on the Senate Banking Committee have decided to throw up roadblocks to Trump's appointee until the probe is resolved.

That brings us to this question. Belle, you said you thought Republicans would stand up to Trump, but Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said they reached a deal? Yeah, he said that, but that's not worth a hill of soybeans. And Republican Senator Thom Tillis said it didn't change his posture. “I have no intention of allowing any Fed board nominee to move forward out of committee and to be confirmed until this matter is settled. We could have a hearing all we want, but until the investigation is done, I still believe that the initial inquiry and the investigation was a flex to try to get the current chair to step aside.” He has the power to throw wrenches into Trump plans here. Then Tillis added “this is foundational to Fed independence and I for one am going to stand on the side of certainty and Fed independence is what delivers certainty in our markets.”

Yes, markets hate uncertainty. This is a really under-reported story. First, you have a Republican standing up to a Trump appointment. Second, that Republican is actually protecting Trump from his own bad policies. And third, this really is a fight over Federal Reserve independence. That independence is absolutely critical to economic stability.

Beyond that, Tillis recently said Warsh “is going to have to decide whether or not he wants to go through with this because, as I'm sure you know, once the nominee is put forward, there are certain restrictions on what he can do in his business life.” That's DC speak for I'm going to drag this out as long as I humanly can and he'll lose money the entire time.

Beyond even that, Tillis is drawing this hard line at every opportunity. His position hasn't changed so far. At the end of January he said, "The Department of Justice continues to pursue a criminal investigation into Chairman Jerome Powell based on committee testimony that no reasonable person could construe as possessing criminal intent. Protecting the independence of the Federal Reserve from political interference or legal intimidation is non-negotiable. My position has not changed. I will oppose the confirmation of any Federal Reserve nominee, including for the position of chairman, until the DOJ's inquiry into Chairman Powell is fully and transparently resolved.”

This is a story that has been going on for quite some time and is significant enough that it should have left the economic nerd information silo by now, but with everything else going on, it's getting overshadowed. A misstep with the Federal Reserve will be far more devastating to our economy than the current TSA issues.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.