Iran war is spiraling out of control: Unprecedented ballistic missile threat - RFU News

[TexasTowelie]

Today, there is dangerous news from Iran.

Here, Iran's furthest strike yet has exposed secret ties and a possible new player entering the Iran war. To everyone's surprise, North Korea is actively supplying the Iranians with the technology necessary to upgrade their ballistic missiles to a whole new level, as the Ayatollah's regime has now threatened to strike Europe itself.

Recently, Iran has launched two medium-range ballistic missiles toward the Diego Garcia military base, a joint US and British installation located in the central Indian Ocean roughly four thousand kilometers from Iran. Unfortunately for the Iranians, neither missile reached its target because one failed during flight, and the other was intercepted by an American interceptor missile launched from a naval vessel. But even though the attack caused no damage, it represented Iran’s first operational use of medium-range ballistic missiles in combat and signaled an unprecedented effort to project power well beyond the Middle East.

With these missiles, Iran can reach all of Europe, while the standard range of Iran’s Khoramshahr intermediate-range ballistic missile is only two thousand kilometers. However, by reducing the payload to approximately three hundred to five hundred kilograms, which is well below the usual one thousand five hundred kilogram warhead, the missile’s range was extended to as much as four thousand kilometers. This trade-off effectively doubles its reach, but at the cost of substantially reduced destructive power, which means such missiles are less effective against hardened military targets and critical infrastructure, requiring multiple strikes to achieve the same impact as a single heavier payload.

However, Iran didn’t develop this capability in isolation, because its ability to conduct long-range strikes today is closely tied to ongoing cooperation with North Korea. This enabled Iran to double the range of its existing missiles, which can reach Diego Garcia. This is not a case of directly imported missiles, but rather a missile program with a strong North Korean foundation. Initially, Pyongyang provided ballistic missile designs and, in some cases, complete systems, which Iran reverse-engineered and adapted into its own platforms. Continued technology sharing and the supply of critical components have enabled Iran to refine and extend the performance of its domestically produced systems, including the Khorramshahr missile. As a result of this technology and equipment sharing by North Korea, Iran can now field missiles capable of reaching distances of around four thousand kilometers, making strikes such as the one targeting Diego Garcia operationally feasible.

However, this range also shows that the Iranian regime now presents a broader global challenge, with missile capabilities that could place major European capitals such as London, Paris, and Berlin, as well as NATO and US military installations, within range. Tehran has explicitly stated its readiness to carry out military operations against adversaries worldwide, warning that both military and civilian targets could be considered. In practice, Iran has already demonstrated its willingness to strike European-linked military assets in the Middle East. Additionally, the United States continues to conduct part of its air operations from bases across Europe.

The mere existence of this capability could significantly strengthen Iran’s strategic position at the negotiating table. Now Iran can threaten European critical infrastructure and military bases as well, which can force them to apply pressure on the US to halt its bombing campaign. However, the reduced warhead, typically in the three hundred to five hundred kilogram range, is relatively modest. Comparable payloads are routinely employed by Russia in Ukraine using systems such as the Kha 101 cruise missile, Iskander missile, and Fab five hundred glide bomb. While individually limited, these munitions can still cause significant damage when used repeatedly and at scale. That said, the Iranian missile would need to penetrate NATO’s missile defense systems, while it is assessed to possess a relatively limited number of such long-range missiles, making it difficult to overwhelm advanced defensive networks. Additionally, its missile stockpiles and launch infrastructure are subject to ongoing targeting by the United States and Israel, which reduces its capabilities every day. However, even if one missile slips through NATO’s air defenses, Iran can cause serious damage to NATO’s image. In practical terms, European anti-ballistic missile defenses may prove insufficient, as they would only be able to defend against these attacks if Iran could launch only a limited number of missiles.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

1. Geology as warfare: Iran put its missiles where physics, not diplomacy, keeps them safe

CNN satellite analysis and Alma Research findings show Iran’s underground tunnel cities, with internal rail systems that move missiles to blast-door exits, have survived the bombing campaign largely intact. The geology, analysts say, is the real defense.

Link to tweet

https://www.thestatesman.com/world/iran-underground-missile-railway-tunnel-us-israel-strikes-operation-epic-fury-1503573121.html

Three weeks of intensive US and Israeli strikes on Iran’s ballistic missile infrastructure have destroyed radar systems, collapsed tunnel entrances, and cratered ventilation shafts across dozens of sites. Iran keeps firing. The reason, according to satellite analysis by CNN and assessments by Israeli security research centre Alma Research, lies not above the ground but hundreds of metres beneath it; inside a network of underground missile cities connected by internal railways, carved into mountains that no bomb in the current American or Israeli arsenal can fully reach.

Iran’s underground missile programme is not a recent improvisation. Reports that emerged as far back as 2020 claimed an automated railway system running through cavernous tunnels, transporting ballistic missiles between assembly halls, storage vaults, and blast-door exits. What is becoming clearer now, as Operation Epic Fury enters its fourth week, is the scale of what was built and the limits of what air power alone can do against it.....

The central constraint is geological, and it has now been publicly stated by Iran itself. Former IRGC Aerospace Force commander Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh said that Iran built its missile bases across provinces and cities at a depth of 500 metres.

The most powerful weapon the United States has for destroying hardened underground targets is the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator – a 30,000-pound bomb built specifically for this purpose. It can penetrate “approximately 60 metres of reinforced concrete or roughly 40 metres of moderate rock. Granite is harder than moderate rock. Five hundred metres is more than twelve times the weapon’s maximum penetration depth. The gap between the bomb and the tunnel is not a margin of error.”....

“IRGC did not prepare for this war by building rockets. It prepared by building railways inside mountains. The rockets are replaceable. The railways are permanent. And the granite that protects them was formed before mammals existed. The strait is 21 miles wide. The mountain is 500 metres deep. And the railway inside it is still delivering missiles to the surface,” he added.

Link to tweet

Iran has continued to fire ballistic missiles throughout Operation Epic Fury, including the attempted strike on the joint US-UK base at Diego Garcia. Trump has said the operation is running weeks ahead of schedule and that Iran’s military is finished. The satellite imagery and the institutional assessments tell a more complicated story: one in which the visible war, fought above ground, has made genuine progress, and the invisible war, fought half a kilometre underground, has barely begun.

There is a reason why only one-third of Iran's missiles have been destroyed. Iran has been preparing for these attacks for decades. Iran's missile facilities are beyond reach of bunker buster bombs and there is no practical way without a very large number of troops to take out these missies.

[Norrrm]

2. No problem. Trump can send Rocketman Kim another love letter to stop helping Iran.

[lapfog_1]

3. all that is left is for China to join with Iran, North Korea, Russia

why would China do it?

First, they would love to invade and take over Taiwan.

Second, they need oil from Iran... as much as they have invested in coal, green energy, electric vehicles, there is still a huge demand for oil and oil products.

Third, they might think now is the right time to face down the USA military... without NATO support. Trump has been busy insulting and threatening NATO allies so...

Our allies would be only the Gulf States, Israel, and, possibly, India. NATO and South America, Canada... might just sit this one out. TBD about Australia and New Zealand. They would not like a dominant China... They also need middle east oil... but they view this as Trump / Israel problem, not theirs. Japan and the Philippines, same deal.

Welcome to WW3. Thanks Trump, Bibi.