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progree

(12,127 posts)
Tue Mar 4, 2025, 12:04 PM Mar 2025

S&P 500 closed Tuesday 7/29 at 6371, down 0.3% for the day, and up 8.3% year-to-date

This discussion thread is pinned.

Last edited Tue Jul 29, 2025, 04:35 PM - Edit history (131)

Year to date is from the Dec 31 closing level.

I couldn't find a stock market wrap new item in my usual place (Yahoo Finance), but this seems to be the biggest news today:

No tariff pause announced after US-China talks, with Trump set to make the 'final call'
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/no-tariff-pause-announced-after-us-china-talks-with-trump-set-to-make-the-final-call-174834648.html

Later: this popped up from the AP via Yahoo Finance:
How major US stock indexes fared Tuesday, 7/29/2025
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/major-us-stock-indexes-fared-201423011.html

It also has its bizarre compilation of "for the week" (it's only Tuesday for Chrissake) and for the year.

==================

Also, the 10 year treasury yield dropped from 4.42% to 4.33% (that's good news, that means these bond prices rose, for one thing, and mortgage rates may ease)

On the data front, inflation and labor will be in the spotlight. The July reading of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is forecast to show a modest monthly and annual uptick on its release on Thursday. ((I've seen economists' expectations of 0.3% May to June increases for both the regular and the core measures -- these are about 3.6% annualized -- these are not modest -Progree)).

The Federal Reserve makes its rate cut decision at 2pm EDT, and Powell's news conference is at 230 pm. Nobody expects any rate change at this meeting, but there will be very high interest in their "dot plot" of future rate cut expectations, particularly for the September meeting and for the remainder of the year.

Also on deck: a flurry of jobs data, with Friday's crucial jobs report the highlight.

On Wednesday the ADP reports its private sector payroll numbers - their payrolls cover about 20% of the workforce. How the heck they extrapolate the other 80%, I have no idea, but it is universally considered not as comprehensive as the Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report due out Friday.

I hope and I pray that my fellow DUers just ignore the ADP report rather than making a big hoo hah about it if it matches our ideological proclivities, as happened last time. The ADP and BLS are very often far apart in both directions. If you are going to Krasnov, Krasnov, Krasnov the Friday numbers, at least be consistent -- don't ghost us when government numbers come in poor as they often do, e.g. the May retail sales disaster, and the weak May BLS jobs report -- with 95k of downward revisions of prior months, there were only 44k more jobs than reported a month before that.

Another example: the PPI wholesale prices for June came out with essentially zero inflation, and the Krasnov Krasnov brigade was all over it. But the previous day, the CPI (consumer prices) report for June came out showing quite an uptick in inflation and it was taken as proof that tariffs and immigrant labor shortages were driving up inflation. Nowhere was there a suggestion that the CPI numbers were manipulated. The PPI and CPI reports are both produced by the BLS.

=============================================
The S&P 500 closed Tuesday July 29 at 6371, down 0.3% for the day,
and up 10.2% from the 5783 election day closing level,
and up 6.2% from the inauguration eve closing level,
and up 8.3% year-to-date,

S&P 500
# Election day close (11/5/24) 5783
# Last close before inauguration day: (1/17/25): 5997
# 2024 year-end close (12/31/24): 5882
# All-time closing high (2/19/25): 6144, until 6/27/25 when it closed at 6173
. . . With the new all-time high closing on June 27, we are in a bull market by any and all definitions
# Trump II era low point (going all the way back to election day Nov5): 4983 on April 8

# Several market indexes: https://finance.yahoo.com/
# S&P 500: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/

========================================================

I'm not a fan of the DOW as it is a cherry-picked collection of just 30 stocks that are price-weighted, which is silly. But since there is an automatically updating embedded graphic, here it is. It takes several, like 6 hours, after the close for it to update, like about 10 PM EDT.
(If it still isn't updated, try right-clicking on it and opening in a new tab. #OR# click on https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/ ).

The Dow closed Monday at 44,838, and it closed Tuesday at 44,633, a drop of 0.5% (205 points) for the day

It closed Wednesday just 4 points below its 45,014 all-time high set in December. But now it's 381 points away from that.



I don't maintain statistics for the DOW like percent up or down since election day, or year-to-date, or from the all-time high etc. like I do for the S&P 500.

DJIA means Dow Jones Industrials Average. It takes about 6 hours after the close to update, so check it after 10 PM EDT


https://finance.yahoo.com/
DOW: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/
. . . . . . https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/history/

DOW
# Election day close (11/5/24) 42,222
# Last close before inauguration day: (1/17/25): 43,488
# 2024 year-end close (12/31/24): 42,544
# DOW All Time High: 12/4/24: 45,014

# Correction level beginning 10% down: 40,513,
# Bear market level: beginning 20% down: 36,011 (we've not reached that level yet in Trump II so far)

I don't have an embeddable graph for the S&P 500, unfortunately, but to see its graph, click on https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/

While I'm at it, I might as well show Oil and the Dollar:

Crude Oil


US Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB)


If you see a tiny graphics square above and no graph, right click on the square and choose "load image". There should be a total of 3 graphs. And remember that it typically takes about 6 hours after the close before these graphs update.
14 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
S&P 500 closed Tuesday 7/29 at 6371, down 0.3% for the day, and up 8.3% year-to-date (Original Post) progree Mar 2025 OP
Kicking for the milestone update - S&P 500's first close below the election day close. How major indexes fared: progree Mar 2025 #1
Kicking: update for Thurs. March 6 close. The "Trump Trade" is back underwater after losing 1.8% for the day (S&P 500) progree Mar 2025 #2
Kicking: Update: S&P 500 closed Friday at 5770, up 0.5% for the day but still below the election day close progree Mar 2025 #3
Update: S&P 500 closed Monday 3/10 at 5615, down 2.7% for the day and 2.9% below the election day close progree Mar 2025 #4
Update: S&P 500 closed Tuesday 3/11 at 5572, down 0.8% for the day, briefly fell into correction territory progree Mar 2025 #5
S&P 500 closed Wednesday 3/12 at 5599, up 0.5% for the day, but down 3.2% since election day progree Mar 2025 #6
Update: S&P 500 closed Thursday at 5522, down 1.4% for the day, and MORE THAN 10% down from the all-time high progree Mar 2025 #7
Update: S&P 500 closed Friday at 5639, up 2.1% for the day, and down 2.5% since election day progree Mar 2025 #8
Update: S&P 500 closed Monday at 5675, up 0.6% for the day, and down 1.9% since election day progree Mar 2025 #9
Update: S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 5615, down 1.1% for the day, and down 2.9% since election day progree Mar 2025 #10
S&P 500 closed Tuesday 3/25 at 5777, up 0.2% for the day, down 0.1% since election day, down 6.0% from ATH progree Mar 2025 #11
S&P 500 closed Wednesday 4/02 at 5671, up 0.7% for the day, down 1.9% since election day, down 7.7% from ATH progree Apr 2025 #12
We're nearing the top. Arizona78 Jul 4 #13
Krugman Arizona78 Jul 4 #14

progree

(12,127 posts)
1. Kicking for the milestone update - S&P 500's first close below the election day close. How major indexes fared:
Tue Mar 4, 2025, 05:11 PM
Mar 2025

Last edited Tue Mar 4, 2025, 05:51 PM - Edit history (1)

How major US stock indexes fared Tuesday, AP, 3/4/2025
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/major-us-stock-indexes-fared-211928579.html

Here's the Year-to-date ones from the article:
# S&P 500: down 1.8%
# Dow: down 0.1%
# Nasdaq down: 5.3%
# Russell 2000 (the small caps): down 6.8%

Not in the article is that the S&P 500 is down 5.9% from its all time closing high of 6144 on Feb 19.

progree

(12,127 posts)
2. Kicking: update for Thurs. March 6 close. The "Trump Trade" is back underwater after losing 1.8% for the day (S&P 500)
Thu Mar 6, 2025, 05:44 PM
Mar 2025

See OP for the statistics.

progree

(12,127 posts)
3. Kicking: Update: S&P 500 closed Friday at 5770, up 0.5% for the day but still below the election day close
Fri Mar 7, 2025, 06:35 PM
Mar 2025

See OP for details

progree

(12,127 posts)
4. Update: S&P 500 closed Monday 3/10 at 5615, down 2.7% for the day and 2.9% below the election day close
Mon Mar 10, 2025, 04:20 PM
Mar 2025

see OP for details.

progree

(12,127 posts)
5. Update: S&P 500 closed Tuesday 3/11 at 5572, down 0.8% for the day, briefly fell into correction territory
Tue Mar 11, 2025, 04:22 PM
Mar 2025

Details in OP.

progree

(12,127 posts)
6. S&P 500 closed Wednesday 3/12 at 5599, up 0.5% for the day, but down 3.2% since election day
Wed Mar 12, 2025, 05:20 PM
Mar 2025

See OP for details, and a graph of the DOW.

progree

(12,127 posts)
7. Update: S&P 500 closed Thursday at 5522, down 1.4% for the day, and MORE THAN 10% down from the all-time high
Thu Mar 13, 2025, 04:19 PM
Mar 2025

Details in the OP.

progree

(12,127 posts)
8. Update: S&P 500 closed Friday at 5639, up 2.1% for the day, and down 2.5% since election day
Fri Mar 14, 2025, 04:23 PM
Mar 2025

Details in the OP.

progree

(12,127 posts)
9. Update: S&P 500 closed Monday at 5675, up 0.6% for the day, and down 1.9% since election day
Mon Mar 17, 2025, 05:48 PM
Mar 2025

Details in OP.

progree

(12,127 posts)
10. Update: S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 5615, down 1.1% for the day, and down 2.9% since election day
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 04:16 PM
Mar 2025

Details in OP.

progree

(12,127 posts)
11. S&P 500 closed Tuesday 3/25 at 5777, up 0.2% for the day, down 0.1% since election day, down 6.0% from ATH
Tue Mar 25, 2025, 10:03 PM
Mar 2025

Details in OP. ATH is All Time High. I don't kick this every market day, but it's been several days, and it's gotten well down on the listings, so I decided to kick it. It looks like the Trump slump since election day is about at an end, only 0.1% down since election day, and with 3 straight market days of gains. Since inauguration day, its down 3.7%.

progree

(12,127 posts)
12. S&P 500 closed Wednesday 4/02 at 5671, up 0.7% for the day, down 1.9% since election day, down 7.7% from ATH
Wed Apr 2, 2025, 04:46 PM
Apr 2025

ATH is All Time High. Details in OP including more comparisons like down 5.4% since pre-inauguration day, and down 3.6% year-to-date.

I don't kick this every market day, but it's been several days, and it's gotten well down on the listings, so I decided to kick it. Note this closing is moments before the announcement of "Liberation Day" tariffs, so it's a good benchmark to compare to what follows in the next few days.

Arizona78

(8 posts)
13. We're nearing the top.
Fri Jul 4, 2025, 03:09 AM
Jul 4

Trump’s bill could soon trigger a repo market crisis and push America and much of the world—toward bankruptcy. Something massive is on the horizon. Get ready.

Arizona78

(8 posts)
14. Krugman
Fri Jul 4, 2025, 03:21 AM
Jul 4

Paul Krugman is deeply concerned about the uncontrolled rise in debt, which could sharply push up interest rates leading to bankruptcy.

https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/trumps-big-beautiful-debt-bomb

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