Justin Wolfers Explains How The Dow Can Hit 50,000 While The Job Market Weakens(!) - CNN Newsroom

[Rhiannon12866]

What happens when the Dow hits 50,000… while the job market quietly weakens?

The stock market is being pulled upward by one dominant story: the global surge in AI. Investors are pricing in a potential revolution—one that boosts valuations for the biggest AI-linked firms and helps lift indexes like the Dow. But that doesn’t mean most workers are sharing in the boom.

Most people don’t work in AI, and building out AI data centers doesn’t require masses of new employees. So while stocks can look unstoppable, the “people part” of the economy can be cooling at the same time.

The clearest signal for everyday life is the unemployment rate—and it’s moved from around 3.5% a couple years ago to about 4.5% now. That rise happened slowly enough to avoid headlines, but over a year it adds up: finding a job is harder, and hiring has slowed sharply.

Another underrated indicator is the quit rate. When workers feel confident, they quit to find something better. When they don’t, quits fall—suggesting people aren’t seeing better opportunities out there right now.

And the AI disruption is already showing up in markets: new AI tools can make individuals more productive and reduce what they need to buy from software firms. That’s great for productivity—but it can be rough on the companies whose business models just got undercut.

Bottom line: a record stock market doesn’t guarantee a strong job market—and the gap matters for your pay, your bargaining power, and your next career move.

Topics covered:
Why the Dow can surge even when hiring slows
How the AI boom is pushing up market valuations
Why data centers don’t translate into broad job growth
What a rising unemployment rate means for families
How slow-moving labor market shifts escape headlines
Why job growth has been weak in recent months
What the falling quit rate reveals about worker confidence
How AI tools can disrupt software and digital services
Why productivity gains can hurt some firms’ earnings
How to interpret “stocks up” vs “economy strong”

Contents:
0:00 Dow 50,000 vs weak job growth
0:26 The AI boom lifting markets
1:06 Why most workers aren’t in AI
1:33 Unemployment rising—quietly
2:16 Hiring slowdown and “Liberation Day” timing
2:42 The quit rate as a confidence gauge
3:11 AI disruption hits software stocks
3:27 Productivity gains for workers

🎯 Key takeaway: A booming stock market can coexist with a cooling labor market—watch unemployment and quits to understand what’s happening to real people.

[Lovie777]

1. One thing that the techs will never comprehend..............

homo sapiens ability to survive. AI needs substances that keep it workable, well, so does humans.

We live in a society that requires forms of money to buy such as food, shelter, basic human needs.

That is being taking away, so this current republican party fails that concept of survival or they just don't give a damn.

See ya at the election polls and by the way, GQP will try and steal the elections.

[WSHazel]

2. The job market is about Trump, not AI

AI is not actually intelligent. It isn’t even close. AI is a search tool at this point in its development, and those who own assets in this sector, like Musk or the CEO of Anthropic, are wildly overstating its capabilities to drive fundraising and valuation. Several of the suppliers to this ecosystem are engaging in circular economic transactions to artificially increase revenue. The high likelihood is that this bubble pops like so many before it.

Employment has slowed because businesses are reluctant to invest in an economy where the Rule of Law is weakening. The Sell America Trade has performed spectacularly since Trimp took office. We are seeing a garden variety capital flight that Trump’s media allies are hiding with smoke and mirrors, like AI.

[multigraincracker]

3. Does not include Bitcoin market.

Might be a better tell of where the market is headed.