Katie Wilson 36%, Bruce Harrell 33%: NPI's May 2025 Civic Heartbeat poll finds statistical tie in Seattle mayoral race
The 2025 contest for Mayor of Seattle is looking quite competitive out of the gate, with first-term incumbent Mayor Bruce Harrell vulnerable to a challenge from Katie Wilson of the Transit Riders Union, a new Civic Heartbeat survey conducted last week by Change Research for the Northwest Progressive Institute shows.
Asked who they would choose in the mayoral race if the general election were being now and the top two candidates were Bruce Harrell and Katie Wilson, 36% said Wilson in the aggregate, while 33% said Harrell and 30% were not sure. 522 likely November 2025 Seattle voters were interviewed, all online between May 10th and May 14th, 2025.
Wilson’s three-point lead is within our survey’s modeled margin of error, so we and our pollster consider this result to be a statistical tie and her advantage to be symbolic. With three out of every ten respondents still undecided in the aggregate, this race appears fluid and unsettled. At this juncture, considering these survey results and Seattle’s electoral history, multiple outcomes look plausible.
The case can be made for the scenario in which Mayor Harrell secures a second term, and the case can be made for the scenario which Katie Wilson ousts him to become the city’s new leader. Other outcomes are also possible, but unlikely… none of the other six candidates running have raised any significant resources for their campaigns.
https://www.nwprogressive.org/weblog/2025/05/katie-wilson-36-bruce-harrell-33-npis-may-2025-civic-heartbeat-poll-finds-statistical-tie-in-seattle-mayoral-race.html