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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forums3 grocery staples that are about to skyrocket in price next month
If your grocery bill feels heavier lately, you're not imagining it. Food prices are expected to rise in 2026, with the USDA's February 25 forecast projecting a general increase of roughly 3.1 percent across all food categories. That broad number, though, can mask dramatic spikes in specific aisles. Prices are projected to increase fastest for sugar and sweets, beef and veal, and non-alcoholic beverages compared to other food-at-home categories. For shoppers trying to plan ahead, the three items below deserve a closer look before next month's checkout.
1. Beef - A Supply Crisis Decades in the Making
The U.S. cattle inventory has hit a 75-year low, tightening supplies and driving higher beef prices and market volatility. According to the USDA's January 2026 inventory report, the total number of cattle and calves in the United States stands at just 86.2 million head - the smallest national herd in 75 years - and the beef cow herd has dwindled to 27.6 million head, its lowest point since 1961. This crisis began years ago with persistent droughts in the Southern Plains and was worsened by high interest rates throughout 2024 and 2025, which forced many ranchers to sell off heifers rather than retain them for breeding.
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2. Coffee - Tariffs and Drought Squeeze America's Morning Ritual
Prices for non-alcoholic beverages, including coffee, had increased by 1.6 percent from December 2025 to January 2026 and were 4.5 percent higher than in January 2025, with the USDA noting that prices were rising faster than the 20-year historical rate - partly because of the surge in coffee prices. The story behind that surge has two main chapters: weather and trade policy. A severe drought during Brazil's last summer season devastated the harvest - and Brazil is the world's top coffee producer, supplying roughly 40 percent of global volume. Vietnam, the world's second-largest supplier, was also hit by a drought that caused coffee production to fall by roughly a fifth in 2024.
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3. Sugar and Sweets - The Biggest Price Hike on the Shelf
According to the USDA's report, the grocery items that will likely go up the most in 2026 are sugar and sweets. Prices for these groceries were already 5.7 percent higher in January 2026 than in January 2025, with candy and chewing gum experiencing the largest hikes, and the USDA predicted that prices for sugar and sweets will rise by 6.7 percent in 2026 - with a prediction interval as high as 10.2 percent. That would more than double the historical average increase of around 3.1 percent for the category. This makes sugar and sweets the single fastest-rising food category tracked in the USDA's Food Price Outlook.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/3-grocery-staples-that-are-about-to-skyrocket-in-price-next-month/ar-AA1Zso09
bucolic_frolic
(55,078 posts)And I'm seeing changes at my east coast regional foreign-owned full service supermarket. They're dropping some imports from sale - removing them as an offering - and dropping prices slightly on some domestic items. Consumers are squeezed and cutting non-nutritious items.
Meanwhile the price of bananas fluctuates. Went up 20% with tariffs, now some have dropped it back 5 or 10 cents, then added 3 cents back on. I think it's a price war more than a tariff issue at this point in time.
Coffee? Tea has been no slouch on inflation list either.
Ocelot II
(130,479 posts)Guess I'll have to cut out.... food.
OldBaldy1701E
(11,106 posts)That the reason I drink coffee is to keep the world safe.
I guess they don't want to be safe anymore.
Dave says
(5,420 posts)LoisB
(13,002 posts)Igel
(37,518 posts)Heretick.
PCIntern
(28,353 posts)Passover items. $12 for a jar of 6 pieces of gefilte fish. If you were having, say, 10 people for Seder, it would be about $40 alone for the fish.
I paid $8 for maybe 12 Joyva gels for candy-dessert and the only bargain was that I got free 5 lbs of matzah with my gigantic checkout order.
Just venting. And I normally have no issue with food prices except that theyre climbing quickly. I know that sounds paradoxical but I think you know what I mean.
surrealAmerican
(11,872 posts)In the Chicago area, I can still get five pounds of it for less than the cost of two one-pound boxes - and in three different brands.
A lot of grocery prices are incomprehensible.
617Blue
(2,468 posts)FarPoint
(14,759 posts)stocking up this weekend...especially the beef...
I'll buy a whole slab and cut down my steaks....rib-eyes probably....
Buy the big rib-eye roast....
Keepthesoulalive
(2,289 posts)In some stores in our area there has been panic buying of paper goods and bottled water. Good luck.
flvegan
(66,255 posts)durablend
(9,264 posts)Anything as an excuse to declare martial law
flvegan
(66,255 posts)for our grandchildren, should we live to tell them.
EuterpeThelo
(335 posts)hoarding coffee since January of 2025. Saw this cr@p coming a MILE away. Same cans stored on my "tariff grocery shelf" (fka "pandemic grocery shelf" as it was originally known) that cost me $5.99-$7.99 or so at the time are going for between $14-21 now.
IronLionZion
(51,218 posts)At least heating oil won't be a problem in the warmer months in the USA. We hope this war will be over by winter.
Old Crank
(7,037 posts)But here in Germany beef has been pricey. Ground beef here is near $6 per pound. I use
Usually buy the pork beef blend for sauces and fillings.
I have been buying turkey legs at a discount. Today I picked up 2 salmon filets, 1.25 km each for about $8 per pound. One into the freezer. The other will give us 2 meals with a guest.
wolfie001
(7,639 posts)....and his ignorant, knuckle-dragging, racist cult members.
LoisB
(13,002 posts)in the morning to load up on coffee before it gets any more expensive.
BidenRocks
(3,242 posts)I use a French Press since I feel the coffee is better and I am alone. No big batch.
Then I was gifted a Nespresso Vertuo Plus and learned how to refill my aluminum capsules.
I am also playing with a Moka Pot. Cuban Coffee sweet and strong.
Lavazza coffee is around $10
One beer out is $10.
I gave up alcohol on election day 2024.
I buy beef on markdown. Today I found 2 pounds 80/20 for $9.00
Not a deal but I saved 6 bucks and tonight is Tacos!
Filled up for $80 @ $5.58/gal
So much winning!
NickB79
(20,338 posts)Spring turkey season is coming up, but there's not much meat on wild turkeys. I'm gonna have to get ahold of a local farmer to buy a quarter of beef to see us through until deer season this fall. Thankfully my daughter is old enough to hunt with me now, and my cousin says his farm is overrun with deer this year, so fingers crossed we get a couple big ones in November. Plus all the squirrels, rabbits and woodchucks we can shoot for stew.
Cha
(318,946 posts)So Many people do.
Sorry!