They're cooking the economic books to please Trump

[indusurb]

Third quarter GDP numbers just came in, and they are much stronger than expected at 4.3% growth. Sorry, but that feels like a lie to me, what with inflation, the farm economy and our economy in general being tanked with tariffs, the double digit rise in bankruptcies over last year, the mass layoffs, etc.

Earlier this year when GDP and employment numbers came in that Trump didn't like, he fired the head of the BLS, not to mentionthe firings at that department in general. My opinion is that they've gotten the message and have been cooking the books ever since in order to please their boss and keep their jobs. They can get away with this for awhile, but sooner or later, probably sometime next year, it's going to become too obvious how bad the economy is for people to ignore, and no amount of cooking will help. Plan accordingly, a crash is coming.

[Johonny]

1. Wall Street is ignoring this news today

Pretty much tells you everything.

[indusurb]

2. True, but Wall Street has become less and less connected to the real economy for the past thirty years

Especially over the past five, they've got their collective head so far up AI's ass they're tickling its metaphorical tonsils. When the AI bubble bursts, and it will, sooner rather than later, it's going to be ugly, ugly for both investors and the rest of us.

[gab13by13]

3. No way in hell was GDP at 4.3%

No way in hell should gasoline be under 3 dollars when Ukraine is blowing up Russian depots, pipelines, refineries, and tankers.

Plus Krasnov has a blockade on Venezuelan oil tankers.

If a Democrat were president under those conditions, gas would be 5 dollars a gallon.

All of the numbers appear to be political now.

[Deminpenn]

18. Last year, Chris Hayes interviewed

either an oil trader or oil trader expert. Anyway, this expert explained that when Biden released oil from the US strategic reserve when oil prices were persistently high and rising, it sent the message the US was willing to make future strategic reserve releases. This expert said Biden effectively broke the oil pricing fever. Even now, the oil market has stayed surprisingly stable.

[ProfessorGAC]

23. It Was Only 4.3%...

...of they published nominal values in place of real GDP.
Easy way to cook the books. Just don't bother to adjust for inflation.
Oh, and I don't trust the inflation numbers either.

[NCDem47]

4. Everyday Americans are NOT feeling it!

Trump and Company can say it went up 10% or more. It WILL...NOT....CHANGE...what people see in their wages and expenses. It just won't. America at the end of the day will not tolerate bullshit what they see with their own eyes and feel in their wallets.

I do think the cake is baked though for 2026 midterms. There's not enough money in the world for Trump to buy off voters in the time left. And culture war crap from Republicans will look totally tone deaf. There would have to be massive shennigans going on for Dems not to take the House and grind Trump's agenda to a halt.

[raccoon]

21. From your keyboard to dog's ears.

[Javaman]

5. of course it's a lie.

they never tell the truth and why would they this time?

[Borogove]

6. Those are my suspicions as well.

[modrepub]

7. What I've Seen

In my local neck of the woods, seems to verify the economy continues to chug along. Most shopping places I go to seem pretty populated. Restaurants are relatively full. Christmas markets are busy. About the only comment I got otherwise was from the person cutting my hair last week. She said things were slower than normal. People coming in less frequently, stretching their hair cuts a week or so.

Whether the chickens eventually come home to roost is anyone's guess at this point. Personally, I thought there'd be some type of economic contraction by now. Maybe other places are different or maybe folks are just hanging on with their credit cards, who knows. Trying to guess where this economy is going is a fools errand. I don't even try anymore. Now excuse me while I go outside to shovel some snow.

[Rebl2]

8. As far

As restaurants, have seen fewer cars in parking lots at popular restaurants in my area. Don’t know about the shopping centers because I have avoided them. Have heard that sales in the area are sluggish, but that was last week. People may be buying, but not as much.

[tavernier]

10. Then your neck of the woods probably isn't affected by tourism.

Christmas in the Florida Keys any other year is the busiest week and month of December. This year you would think that it’s August. We have lost our Canadians, we have lost our Europeans, and we locals don’t have a whole bunch of money to stretch in stores that rely on the kind of money that tourism brings in. It’s nice for a change to walk into a restaurant and actually find a seat or to be able to get out on the road, but our businesses are hurting bad.

[Pacifist Patriot]

14. I have been curious about that. I will be in Key West for two weeks in January.

I suspect it won't feel normal.

[tavernier]

32. Certainly not to us because "normal" snowbird season in January

is bumper to bumper crowded, but there will be plenty of domestic vacationers. Just not the international crowds, especially the Canadians. And now that Trump expects them all to pay a fee to enter, plus opening their phones and computers to reveal their political and personal correspondence, there will be slim pickings for our country’s tourism industry.

[PSPS]

11. LOL. Now pull my other finger!

[questionseverything]

20. People are using payday loans for groceries

There’s always going to be the upper 10-20% ers that will still have money and spend even when the bottom 60% are scrambling to eat

[gab13by13]

9. I watch the headlines scroll across my msn home page

I don't just see that companies are laying people off, I see where companies are closing down. I see where restaurant chains are closing many places across the country. I can go to my home page now and cut and paste an article where some big factory is shutting down. I saw yesterday where cardboard box plants were shutting down which is a double whammy, companies don't want boxes.

Employment should be up now for holiday workers.

[patphil]

15. Jim Beam is closing it's main distlllery for one year due to poor sales.

The Canadian market for American whiskey is nearly gone.
Apparently they are taking advantage of this to renovate the distillery, and no workers are being let go, just reassigned. I guess that's the best they could do, given the huge drop in sales.
Not firing the workers indicates they do plan to reopen the distillery after they complete the renovation.
I think it's also a gamble that the tariff madness will be over by then, and Canadians will relent of their boycott.

[GiqueCee]

12. Here's one thought you can take to the bank...

... Republicans can't tell the truth about the time of day, so they'e sure as hell not going to tell the truth about anything as important as the GDP numbers. If a Republican's lips are moving, it is lying.

[ashredux]

13. Sadly, you cannot trust any of the data right now from the government

Buckle up kids, check your 401(k) carefully, and I say take some profits and put some of that cash in CDs for a while

[uponit7771]

16. ***ITS TRUE*** But look at what increased !! HCI premiums (link)

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100220885887

[D_Master81]

17. I actually laughed when I saw the number

I was like unemployment is rising, jobs market has been soft yet we are being told GDP came in a full percentage point over estimates? I mean 4+ percent seems like it is during a booming economy not what we are seeing now

[Justice matters.]

24. The only "boom" is in the Health-Care-Insurance biz.

See the link in Reply 16 above.

Care is a place over for Don't Care.

[richdj25]

19. This bit economic smoke and

mirrors is nothing more than an attempt by Trump's cult to pump up his ego, and divert away from the Epstein files.

[Fil1957]

22. Good luck with that Donald, It ain't gonna work...

[LetMyPeopleVote]

25. I do not trust any numbers from the trump assholes

[Walleye]

27. Me too

[Walleye]

26. There's an old song, "straighten up and fly right." It goes something like

The monkey looked a buzzard straight in the eye, and said, “your story is so sweet, but it sounds just like a lie”, been reminded of that line in this song a lot lately

[Raven123]

28. Cook away. Pocketbooks don't lie.

[BlueTsunami2018]

29. That's why they fired everyone who keeps the books.

They can just make up anything they want.

[thought crime]

30. Ordinarily that would be conspiracy theory.

With the Trump administration, it's a safe assumption.

[North Coast Lawyer]

31. Top 10% still spending

Could be cooked books.

Or, it could be further confirmation that much of the American population is no longer economically relevant. Our brave new economy depends on the top 10%'s continued spending. The suffering of those at the bottom of the pyramid is economically irrelevant.

It's basically Dr. Suess' Yertle the Turtle:

... “Your Majesty, please… I don’t like to complain,
But down here below, we are feeling great pain.
I know, up on top you are seeing great sights,
But down here at the bottom we, too, should have
rights. ...