Tariff rates may have been suggested by AI Large Language Models

[muriel_volestrangler]

Link to tweet

"This might be the first large-scale application of AI technology to geopolitics.. 4o, o3 high, Gemini 2.5 pro, Claude 3.7, Grok all give the same answer to the question on how to impose tariffs easily."





Via Lawyers, Guns & Money: AI will doom us all

[cachukis]

1. Thanks. Great find.

[muriel_volestrangler]

2. Paul Krugman comments on this: "Will Malignant Stupidity Kill the World Economy?"

There’s so much wrong with this approach that it’s hard to know where to start. But one easy thing to point out is that the Trump calculation only considers trade in goods, while ignoring trade in services. This is a big omission. Notably, the European Union runs a substantial surplus with us if you only look at trade in goods — but this is largely offset by an EU deficit in services trade:

So if Trump’s people had plugged all trade with the EU, not just trade in physical goods, into their formula they would have concluded that Europe is hardly protectionist at all.
...
But it may be even worse than that. The Trump formula is apparently what you get if you ask ChatGPT and other AI models to make tariff policy:
[The tweet in the OP]
In my post immediately following the Trump announcement I speculated that Elon Musk’s Dunning-Kruger kids might be responsible for those tariff numbers. That now looks like a distinct possibility.

https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/will-careless-stupidity-kill-the

[newdeal2]

4. "Dunning-Kruger kids" haha

But now this all makes more sense.

And when it all goes to shit, Trump will say “Big Balls did it. I never heard of the guy. This is the first I’m hearing of it.”

[Celerity]

9. MUSICAL CODA

Tony Bennett - Call Me Irresponsible

[underpants]

3. Interesting. This author came to the same conclusion last night

I’m guessing with a pencil and WAAAAY better math than the Clustertrump

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=3432381

[cachukis]

5. Have spoken with some wealthy friends who are in

favor with what's happening because when it all comes down, it can be built back up properly.
Don't say how, but it was so bad it has to go.
Beyond words.

[muriel_volestrangler]

6. This is the Liz Truss moment.

They've proudly put forward an economic policy that has economists the world over saying "WTF? That's ridiculous. That'll cause a recession, at best".

Truss did it in a parliamentary system, so she lost the confidence of her party, and had to resign (like the House Speaker needs the confidence of his majority). Truss didn't outlast her lettuce.

In a presidential system, Trump's a lot harder to dispose of. You can't impeach for stupidity. It's dumb, but no Republican is going to say it's in the realm of the 25th Amendment "unable to do the job" reasons to chuck him out. But Congressional Republicans might just take back control of tariffs so that they can save their seats in 2 or 4 years' time.

Or several rich people might simply bribe Trump to resign, if that's what it takes. It'd still be worth it for them.

[newdeal2]

7. They don't want to tell the truth

They are waiting for the Trump tax cuts and for an economic collapse so they can buy distressed businesses / property for cheap.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

8. The formula used by trump to calculate tariffs is very stupid

This is a very stupid way to calculate tariffs

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Here is the Vietnam example

Link to tweet

This guy cracked the tariff formula:
@orthonormalist

It’s simply the nation’s trade deficit with us divided by the nation’s exports to us.

Yes. Really.

Vietnam: Exports 136.6, Imports 13.1
Deficit = 123.5

123.5/136.6 = 90%

[0rganism]

10. The AIs actually seem more nuanced than F47 & his asshole posse

One calls the method "straightforward (if naive)". Another notes that doing this is "not feasible or desirable for several reasons". And there's a lot more cautionary language mixed in there.

While insufficient on its own, this could be seen as part of a larger body of supporting evidence for a theory that even the slave-toddler AIs we have now would govern the USA better than F47.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

11. The formula for these tariffs is stupid

Link to tweet

[valleyrogue]

12. "Artificial intelligence" might be the stupidest concept ever devised in the history of the world. n/t