Inflation risk from trump tariffs according to economy reporter from Reuters

[senseandsensibility]

Michael Derby is quoting Piper Sandler: "The tariffs came in higher/worse than we'd expected, so we are lowering our 2Q real GDP estimate from 0% to -1%. And given where the big tariff hikes are concentrated--China, Vietnam, Taiwan, etc.--the risks to consumer inflation are much higher than initially thought."

Sounds like fun times when the markets open tomorrow and as inflation hits in the coming days. Now the Dems have ONE JOB: Make sure the voters know whose fault this is. Hint: saying it once isn't enough.

[unblock]

1. "Risk" means uncertainty. But raising taxes on goods is literally mandating inflation

The only "risk" is how much inflation.

But it's a lock to be markedly higher.

There's absolutely no way to imagine hiking prices leading to lower prices.

[senseandsensibility]

2. But I think the point is that

it's going to be even worse than many in the industry thought.

[unblock]

3. It's already worse than people realize

From what I'm seeing, including private data from my day job, we're already in a recession.

This guy is dumber than Hoover.

[Mike 03]

6. Wow, interesting. Thanks for sharing this.

I believe you.

The hoarding that many companies did in preparation for the tariffs (and maybe stockpiling by ordinary people, plus holiday spending) could make the most recent quarter(s) look better than they actually were. I know that I overspent between November and February getting to a place where I could try to go a long time without buying anything.

[unblock]

8. Yeah, that's the question. Was January stockpiling big enough to counter the contraction in March,

and when exactly did the contraction start. Personally I think it started mid-to-late February but it's not an easy call, there's a lot of weirdness this quarter due to the crazy uncertainty.

[dalton99a]

4. Democrats should call it the Trump tax. Say it loud and say it often. And repeat.

[senseandsensibility]

9. So simple

It should be easy for ALL Dems to weave this into any interview or any comment. Rinse, lather, repeat. So that when it happens voters, even the most casually attentive ones, know who's responsible.

[Mike 03]

5. Thanks for posting this. It helps explain why a number of guests on

Bloomberg were saying the tariffs are "much worse than expected." I couldn't figure out why this was worse than what we expected. But they are focused on those additional tariffs imposed on China, Viet Nam and Taiwan, where so much of our stuff comes from. I think/guess that even semiconductors will be enormously impacted. Apple manufactures product in Viet Nam... I see why this is so problematic.

[senseandsensibility]

7. Exactly

Everyone knew they would be bad and cause inflation but emphasis on Asian countries is very bad news for consumers.